What are the odds


Many Americans are hauled into court daily by the IRS to pay taxes- assumed guilty until they can prove their innocence. The IRS is being hauled into court in two separate cases before two separate judges in two separate courtrooms in Federal District Court in Washington, DC. Both of these judges by the way, have great confidence one being appointed by Pres. Bill Clinton and one appointed by George Bush. The basis of the suits is to determine how all those emails could go missing. Having worked in the computer industry since 1982, I have my own ideas. But lets just deal with the logic, the odds of that many hard drive crashes in that amount of time.

The odds of winning the Florida lottery are one in 22,957,400 million and the odds of winning the Powerball one in 175,223,510 million, the odds of winning Mega millions are one in 258,890,850 million. The odds of a disk drive failing in any given month is roughly 1 in 36. The odds of two different drives failing the same month are roughly 1 in 36 squared or about one in 1300. The odds of three disk drives failing in the same month is 36 cubed or one in 46,656. The odds of seven different drives failing in the same month, which is what the IRS is claiming is 36 to the seventh power or that is one in 78,664,164,096.

Statistically speaking, you could win the Florida lottery 342 times, before those seven disk drives could fail at the same time in the same month.


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